Syrian
regime planning evil but Lebanon resistance is growing
According to sources within the “Cedars Revolution,”
the withdrawing Syrian forces have left behind them a vast network
aiming at subversive activities in order to prove that they are need
to maintain security. The Baath party branch, The Syrian
Social-Nationalist Party (SSNP), the Intelligence services of the
Lebanese and Syrian regimes, the intelligence network of the
Republican Guard (Colonel Moustafa Hamdane), and the Surete Generale (Colonel
Jamil Sayed) have established a coordination network under the direct
command of the Syrian Mukhabarat out of Damascus. Hizbollah and the
Jihadists within the Palestinian camps are considered as the “second
reserves,” to be used when and if “outside, meaning international
forces” come in. Last week, the first strike by this shadow Syrian
network hit a popular neighborhood in Jdeideh, in East Beirut. The
same sources believe it was executed by Republican Guard operatives,
who want to scare Lebanon’s youth against participation in the sit-ins
and demonstrations. They also could be trying to deter financial
institutions from supporting the democracy movement.
Some analysts in Beirut believe that this Syrian
network may attempt to assassinate politicians, intellectuals and even
high ranking officers of the Lebanese Army to cripple Lebanon – in
other words, an edited version of the terrorist attacks in Iraq, which
are also supported from Damascus.
Less than four regular brigades of the Syrian Army
remains in Lebanon, three of the 10th Syrian infantry division and an
independent one deployed in Baalbek. They have received orders to
pullout from Lebanon before April 7. These troops, according to
sources inside Syria, will be deployed on the border with Iraq to
reinforce the two divisions stationed there. Policy planners within
the regime, in agreement with their Iranian counterparts, are taking
very seriously US and European pressure and are keeping an eye on the
“concentration of naval US forces in the Eastern Mediterranean.” In a
sum, the Damascus-Tehran axis seems to have developed a “Lebanon
plan.”
This plan entails pulling out the regular troops
inside the “Baathist Reich” while deploying a plethora of terror and
intelligence networks inside Lebanon. Colonel Hamdane has been calling
all his collaborators in Beirut and supplying them with weapons. In
addition, he controls the “Mourabitoun organization”, formerly
commanded by his maternal uncle Ibrahim Koleylat. The group was
resuscitated by Syria a few years ago and is now an organized network
in West Beirut with about 500 fighters. They could be ordered into
action at any time.
Reports of Syria’s withdrawal of its regular troops
have been the best news for Lebanon’s army in 30 years. The commander
of the Lebanese Army, General Michel Sleimane, issued a communiqué
stressing on “law and order” after the Jdeideh bombing. Furthermore
Sleimane emphasized that “the Army is protecting the liberty of speech.”
Unheard before, this doctrine may constitute an important new element.
Slowly, the Lebanese regular forces may move to fill in the void. They
would become the “defenders of the demonstrators not their oppressors.”
This has already happened in many areas since the assassination of
Hariri. A serious danger would be a strike by the Mukhabarat against
the Lebanese officers. If this occurs, there will be a “second Syrian
army” in Lebanon, dominated by their stooges. But the Lebanese
Diaspora leaders, concerned about this threat, have informed the
Security Council of this possibility, asking for an international
“protection of the only military institution capable of assuming
Lebanon’s long term security after the Syrian withdrawal.” Within the
United Nations, Western and Arab diplomats alike are now drawing a red
line around the Lebanese Army, which they recognize as the only real
hope for hard work that will surely be necessary to create a peaceful,
democratic Lebanon.
Inside Lebanon, pro-Syrian politicians still hope
the “wave will die out” and the Cedars Revolution will be a Beirut
spring, a clone to Prague in 1968. But deep inside Lebanon’s civil
society, students, farmers, school teachers, fishermen, women’s groups
and religious orders from all communities know this is their time, and
this is their one shot at freedom. Again this week, the world will see
them marching again. But this time, the show will be even greater. The
Lebanese are known for their fertile imagination. Next Sunday, Muslims
and Christians will come not only from their villages and cities to
chant for freedom and democracy, but–as their ancestors the
Phoenicians did—also from the sea.
Dr Walid Phares is a Senior
Fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in
Washington and a Professor of Middle East Studies. He is also the
Secretary General of the World Lebanese Cultural Union.
www.wlcu.org. Dr.
Phares wrote this commentary for LEBANONWIRE |