Hezbollah Believes Obama Administration ‘Better’ for
Them
Dr. Walid Phares
November 3, 2008
While the debate in
the United States rages over future counterterrorism
policies of the two Presidential candidates,
Hezbollah's partisans in Lebanon are very open about
their support to Senator Barack Obama. Rightly so or
not, their perception is telling as to the general
attitude of Jihadist forces in the region regarding
the future of U.S. foreign policy.
As detailed in an AFP
report from Lebanon, the perception by Hezbollah's
militants, described as "fans of Ayatollah Khomeini,"
is clear: An Obama Administration will be "better" for
them than a McCain's. If you follow the logic of this
perception, it would lead you to the prediction by the
region's regimes and militant forces that a radical
change in Washington's war on terror, if not its
ending, will produce a rehabilitation of the regimes
now called rogues such as Iran, Syria and Sudan. Hence,
after an al Qaeda military commander wished "humiliation"
to the Party of the incumbent President, meaning
defeat to McCain, many statements from Tehran,
Damascus, Gaza and now this AFP report shows a clear
preference by the radical movements to see an Obama
Presidency taking the control of US policy in 2009.
These trends, which
will become very clear "if" and once the results would
give victory to the Senator from Illinois, shed light
on an ongoing discussion of preferences within the
Jewish and Middle Eastern communities as to who should
occupy the Oval Office next January. American Jews
traditionally split along Party lines. But in this
election digesting an Obama choice for Jewish
Democrats and liberals had to be helped by a speech
delivered by the young Senator at AIPAC and a visit to
Israel, where he committed to "support the Jewish
state." Obviously the details were not discussed. But
the mood among radical regimes and organizations
overwhelmingly in support to Obama seems to question
the real future attitudes towards the "real" issues on
the ground. For over two weeks I had this discussion
on Arab media including on al Hurra TV, al Jazeera,
Abu Dhabi TV, the Saudi TV, Nile TV, as well as on LBC
and many radio programs. "Is Obama's speech to
American Jewish audiences a real commitment or is it a
classical American speech delivered to one of the most
influential voting blocs in sensitive states?" That
question was unanimous but interestingly enough, a
rising number of commentators said "in the end, this
speech is unavoidable. It is actions regarding Iraq,
Afghanistan, Lebanon, Iran and Sudan that counts as a
prelude to a change in US behavior regarding Israel."
Interestingly, al
Jazeera was broadcasting throughout the week a long
documentary titled "the Israel Lobby" which basically
concluded that "eventually, this lobby has influence
but it can be reversed."
On the other hand,
we've noted the electoral split among Arab and Middle
Eastern voters in the United States. Among these six
million citizens originating from the region, agenda
reading was faster. While most of the Arab Muslim
organizations critical of US policy mobilized
overwhelmingly for Obama, Middle East ethnic groups
such as Lebanese, Copts, Assyro-Chaldeans and Sudanese
and Darfur-Americans, as well as Arab and Muslim
reformers chose McCain by political instincts.
But the matter remains
an issue of perception. As described by the AFP
report, Hezbollah's supporters, reflecting the hopes
of their leaders and of the Iranian regime obviously
would prefer a US President who would opt for a "sit
down and cut deal" policies over "confrontation and
containment." To the opponents of American policy of
Democratization, a new direction – in their direction
– is the best they can hope for. Are they right in
their expectations? First U.S. voters will have to
cast their ballots. Then history will take its course.
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