As I have warned
several times over the past year, and many articles
later, Hezbollah has indeed waged its expected
blitzkrieg against the democratically elected
Government of Lebanon. Within 24 hours, the
pro-Iranian super militia blocked all accesses to
the Beirut International Airport, established an
exclusive security zone around the organization’s
headquarters in south Beirut, deployed its forces
into several Sunni neighbourhoods in the capital and
erected check points across the country. Within 48
hours or more the “Party of Allah” may be in control
of large areas of the Lebanese Republic. In short,
this could mutate into a slow motion coup d’Etat.
What’s behind the blitz?
The big picture was
very predictable. The Syro-Iranian “axis” which is
flaring up various battlefields in the region, from
Basra to Gaza, has instructed its local “force” on
the Lebanese battlefield to surge against the
pro-Western Government of Fuad Seniora. Hezbollah is
a disciplined Iranian asset on the Eastern
Mediterranean. All of the arguments advanced by its
secretary general Hassan Nasrallah in his last press
conference and grievances against the Government
have always been around since the summer of 2005.
These criticisms of the cabinet are used when a
large scale action is ordered by the Tehran
strategists. The local “issues” are part of the
greater puzzle, but in Lebanese politics, they seem
to be “the” issues at hand. What are they?
Back in September 2004,
a UNSCR 1559 has asked all militias, including
Hezbollah to disarm and Syria to pull out from
Lebanon. The “axis” responded with a string of
assassinations against Lebanese critics. An attempt
against Minister Marwan Hamade in the fall of 2005
was followed by an earth shaking massacre of the
former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and his
assistants and friends in February 2005. A Cedars
Revolution followed with one million and a half
people taking the streets to demand the departure of
the Syrians and the disarming of Hezbollah. Assad
pulled out his troops in April of that year leaving
the “second army” behind, Hezbollah. As of July 2005
a series of murders targeted Lebanese anti-Hezbollah
politicians.
This
state-within-the-state, receives more than 300
billions $ annually to maintain its socio-economic
dominance among Shiia Lebanese. In addition it
receives loads of advanced weapons, including
rockets and missiles. In July of 2006 Hezbollah
triggered a War with Israel to dodge its disarming
at the hands of the Lebanese Government. By November
the group staged an occupation of downtown Beirut,
to paralyze Lebanon’s economy. In 2007 the
assassinations of lawmakers resumed. In November of
that year, Hezbollah and its allies blocked the
election of a new President for Lebanon, to avert
the selection by the majority in parliament of a
leader who would actually call on the UN to disarm
the militia. But as of winter 2008, a master plan
was devised to overrun strategic assets of the
Government, including the International Airport.
Swiftly, the Pasdaran-trained operatives installed
surveillance cameras on the tarmacs and obtained
sensitive security information from the commanding
officer of the airport, a Shia whose allegiance has
been gone to Hezbollah.
The Lebanese Government
finally reacted by asking Hezbollah to remove the
cameras, and begin the dismantling of the parallel
telephone communications system. In addition, the
Government ordered the Airport commanding officer to
join his headquarters at the Defense Ministry. In 24
hours, the “Hizb’s” secretary general Hassan
Nasrallah reacted and launched his phased coup. In
his press conference he declared war against the
Government and accused it of being an “agent of the
Americans.” Few hours after, Hezbollah’s Special
Forces and snipers tightened their grip around the
Airport and moved into Sunni West Beirut. They
seized the strategically located neighbourhood of
Ra’s al Nabaa overlooking both (Christian and
Muslim) sides of the capital, fought their way into
Hamra Street and practically controlled more than
80% of West Beirut. By midnight, three hundred
thousands Lebanese Sunni found themselves under an
Iranian-sponsored “occupation.”
Across the former green
line, the Christian sectors of the capital remained
outside the control of Hezbollah, with hundreds of
armed youth taking position on the roof tops of the
tall buildings. Will Nasrallah order an invasion of
East Beirut or will he ask his “Christian” puppets
to do the job for him? In the Chuf Mountains, south
of Beirut, the anti Syrian leader Walid Jumblat is
strategically besieged. The Syrian-Iranian axis had
his entire district encircled and have already
prepared a special task force with Druze figureheads
ready for the man hunt: The March 14 Coalition seem
to be physically targeted for elimination, unless a
third force protects it. Where is the Lebanese Army?
Well, the commander of the Lebanese Armed forces
made sure his units would not side with the Lebanese
Government in its struggle against Hezbollah. This
was called “neutrality.” That would be the
equivalent of the U.S forces not intervening if a
gigantic militia emerges in America and surrounds
the White House, the U.S Congress and all federal
buildings, “in defense of national unity.” Unreal in
a democracy but very real in a country where the
influence of Syria and Iran have not been reduced by
the mere rise of the Cedars Revolution. And that is
precisely what Washington’s foreign policy
architects haven’t been able to comprehend.
Within the beltway,
lots of head scratching on both sides of the
Potomac: What can the U.S do to respond to the Syro-Iranian
offensive which is obliterating a young democracy so
dear to the speech writers of the President and many
congressional leaders from both parties? A crushing
defeat to democracy in Lebanon under the eyes of an
American public eager to see advances in the War on
terror will be devastating. U.S warships are
patrolling the international waters along the
Lebanese coasts. A ten thousand strong UNIFIL force
is deployed inside southern Lebanon. But what can
this deployment of force do to deter Hezbollah’s
determination? Many had advised the U.S Government
years ago to implement gradual steps to contain
Hezbollah in Lebanon. The precious four years since
the issuing of UNSCR 1559 have now expired and the
Government of Fuad Seniora is on the verge of
collapse or reduction. What can the coalition of the
willing to-save-Lebanon do at this point?
It can still do few
things. First move to the UN Security Council and
invoke Chapter 7 of the Charter. Let the
international body decide on this matter. Meanwhile
go to plan “B” and extend all support possible to a
democratically elected Government in jeopardy. The
international community has still significant allies
inside the country. An overwhelming sector of the
public with most of the Sunnis, Christians and Druze
plus a minority among Shia, two thirds of the
Lebanese Army, a majority in Parliament, backed by
millions in the Diaspora. On the ground, Hezbollah
has thousands of fighters but it has never
experienced “occupying” other Lebanese. The
Iranian-backed organization may be tempted of
eliminating other Lebanese leaders, Druze, Sunnis
and Christians but that would put Nasrallah and his
assistants on an international list for war crimes.
The next few hours and days are crucial in Lebanon.
An interim compromise may also emerge. But as the
Roman adage goes, Alea Iacta Est, the dice
has already rolled. Hezbollah is not a “resistance”
anymore, ironically, by now it is an occupier of its
own country.
******
Dr Walid Phares is the
Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the
Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a
visiting scholar at the European Foundation for
Democracy. He is the author of the newly released
book, The Confrontation: Winning the War against
Future Jihad.
