At one
day from the final deadline to elect a new President
in Lebanon, within the constitutional time frame,
Mideast expert Walid Phares said "the Syrian-Iranian
propaganda machine was so far successful in spinning
the game in Lebanon so that no President would be elected
by midnight of Friday November the 23rd." Phares, the
Director of the Future Terrorism Project of the
Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
in Washington added: "The intelligence and policy architects
in Tehran and Damascus were so far successful in
undermining the political process in Beirut and
creating the illusion that short of satisfying them,
hell would break loose in Lebanon. Lebanon's
Government and the Parliamentary majority were led
to believe that by proceeding to elect a President
by normally voting for a candidate with the
universal principle of simple majority will lead to
disaster and bloodshed in the streets. Hence, by
waiting all the way till the end of the
constitutional period, and trying to accommodate
Hezbollah, the March 14 Coalition would be faced
with two choices: either accept a "defeat
President" or move to the next stage that is two
Governments in Lebanon. The third choice, to elect a
strong President with simple majority is still open
though, even after the end of the constitutional
time period."
Phares said
the "axis" plan was to lead their opponents to
believe that:
1. The
United States and the UN will not confront the
terror threat if a President is elected by a
majority in Parliament, which is wrong.
2. That
France wanted to impose a "Hezbollah-blessed"
President, which is wrong.
3. That
some deal with Syria was cut with the Arab countries
at the eve of the Annapolis conference, which is not
accurate.
Reality is
that all these points and others are mirages created
by the Syro-Iranian propaganda machine to intimidate
March 14 and crumble the willingness of the majority
to perform its duties and elect a President.
Unfortunately, it has worked till now."
Phares,
who was one of the architects of the introduction of
UNSCR 1559 in 2004 told France 24 that "the deputies
have the right to meet, to elect whomever they
wanted and that the so-called opposition can continue
to oppose the new President politically and prepare
itself for the next legislative and Presidential
elections. This is how all countries with political
crisis and tensions behave. But in Lebanon, said
Phares to the French cable, "it is not an issue of a
normal opposition dealing with a constitutional
crisis. There is an armed group, that calls itself
an opposition, and is threatening to seize power in
the streets if their candidate is not chosen. This
is called terrorism not opposition." Responding to a
journalist from TF1 participating in the panel,
Phares said "there is public evidence that Mr Hassan
Nasrallah and his deputy Naim Qassem who say they
command twenty thousand missiles and rockets openly
stated that unless things goes their way, they will
launch an insurgency against the democratically
elected President. That is the heart of the matter,"
said Phares. "For after six legislators -voting for
the President- were assassinated over the past two
years by 'axis' terror networks, and as terrorist threats
are made against the Seniora Government and the
Parliamentary majority openly, what is happening in
Lebanon is not a normal election in normal
circumstances. The political process has been
subverted by a terror war directed against the
legislators and Lebanon's civil society."
Addressing the options available, Phares told the
"Right Balance" radio in the US that "three roads
are open now:
1. If
the anti terrorist Majority elect a strong President
within the constitutional term, which is a very
remote possibility today at 24 hours from the
deadline, the country will have an internationally
recognized President and a cabinet. However, the "axis"
will mount an insurgency and pro-Syrian President
Lahoud will form a pro-Syrian cabinet.
2. If a
last minute agreement is reached over a weak
President, Lebanon will slowly fall back into the
hands of the Syrian-Iranian axis. It would be a
gradual death of the Cedars Revolution. This is the
worse situation.
3. If
no election is done by the end of the constitutional
term, the Seniora Government would resume as a care
taker, according to the constitution, and would work
on bringing the deputies to elect a President. But
expect Lahoud to form another Hezbollah controlled
Government. In this situation Lebanon will have two
Governments as well."
Phares
told Mideast Newswire that the first and
best option strategically is for the Lebanese MPs
opposed to terrorism to meet and elect a strong
President with a 50% plus one vote. They will have
all the time they need to negotiate after. Nothing
else would protect Lebanon than having a free
President, a free cabinet and a free parliamentary
majority for the next two years, and possibly six
years. For the other side will carry as much as it
can from its threats, regardless. Hezbollah is not
expected to be tender with the Cedars Revolution if
a so-called consensus candidate is selected. If the
March 14 Coalition allow Iran and Syria to impose a
weak President, the latter will not protect them
from terrorism. If they wait too long and have
Lahoud appoint another Government, this would
complicate things internationally." Bottom line,
concluded Phares "there is one sound choice for the
deputies, that is to elect a committed President now
better than tomorrow, and tomorrow better than
later, but to elect a free President anytime better
than a Hezbollah chosen President now."
