Dr Walid Phares, director of the
Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the
Defense of Democracies, just checked in with "The
Tank." Here's what he tells me:
The Cedars Revolution
is on the verge of a crushing political defeat over
the next few days, and at the hands of its own
politicians.
Instead of electing a strong anti-terror president,
the Lebanese members of parliament are trying to cut
deals with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran to select a
candidate who:
a) would not commit to disarming the terrorist
organization, and
b) would not side with the world campaign against
terrorism.
Some of these MPs are telling Lebanon's friends in
Washington and Paris that "the pressure from Syria
and Iran is too great and the counter-pressure from
the U.S. and France is too low."
The Lebanese March 14 coalition, which was elected
to parliament in 2005 after the Cedars Revolution,
seems to have abandoned the policy of withstanding
Syro-Iranian pressure and is now considering names
of individuals who have never marched in the Cedars
Revolution and who will not express the aspirations
of the majority of the Lebanese people.
According to
many of the leading politicians in Lebanon, it
appears that the America-supports-Lebanon message
wasn't clear enough. Still it is too early to know
whether or not the current situation is due because
of March 14's inability to sustain the "axis"
pressure, or because of an American diplomatic
failure to effectively convey the message to Syria
that it must stay away from Lebanon's Presidential
election. The next few weeks will bring about the
answer.
Assad:
a winner? 
Cedars
Revolution to be defeated?
A last strong move by the U.S., involving
dispatching a high-ranking official to Lebanon to
reassure March 14 that Washington would counter any
Iranian threat might save the situation a few
minutes before the political midnight. Deploying an
aircraft carrier strike group into the eastern
Mediterranean could balance the weight of the
Iranian Pasdaran and their missiles deployed in
Lebanon, so that Tehran and Damascus aren't the only
powers present in that small country.
Short of a high ranking American diplomat and the
U.S. Navy present at the scene, it will be a miracle
if the Cedars Revolution won't be defeated
politically.
"March
14 must elect a President regardless"
Speaking
with Mideast Newswire this afternoon, Dr
Phares said the US should reaffirm its support to
March 14 majority and warn the terror forces in
Lebanon not to embark in an urban coup in the next
few days. "But March 14 has the obligation to
proceed with a simple majority vote (50% + 1) and
elect a strong and committed President so that the
international community can proceed in its
obligation of supporting Lebanon's democracy. The
Lebanese are responsible first for their future and
thus they need to courageously elect their President
notwithstanding the terror threats coming from
Hezbollah. For the latter would find itself facing
off with the majority of the Lebanese people. But at
the same time, said Phares, the US, France and the
UN must clearly state that they will not accept a
fait accompli by Hezbollah and its allies on the
ground if a simple majority President is elected.
This is the real equation today. If both March 14
and Washington fail to see where their roles are,
there will be bad news coming from Lebanon by next
week.
11/20 01:36 PM http://tank.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmU5YzBkZDE3YWNhODE3MGE4OTMzMjIyMTgyOTE2YTg
