Counter
Terrorism Blog, FDD, Lebanonwire.com
In its second day,
HizbAllah’s offensive in Lebanon against the democratically
elected Government has maintained pressures on various levels.
Following are the main axis of activities:
HizbAllah’s deployment
By mid week end, several
thousands of HizbAllah’s members, cadres and officers have settled
inside downtown Beirut, surrounding the Prime Minister’s office.
The militia erected dozens of tents in a military fashion, with 30
fighters in each tent. Sources from the Lebanese Army described
the “deployment” of the tents as a bivouac-maneuvering of about
three brigades, “clearly following the Iranian military code,”
said the sources.
By late Saturday evening early Sunday morning,
the Lebanese Army was able to move a number of these tents to the
sides opening a path to the Government building.
However, security sources
noted that HizbAllah’s units are positioning themselves in several
circles around the center of Beirut. There are no weapons apparent
but according to observers, the “demonstrators” can be armed in
less than three hours and “become” the equivalent of half a
“division” in the downtown area and close to a division inside
Sunni Beirut.
(HizbAllah's
military tents)
Sunni resistance
begins
In the early hours of
Saturday through the first hours of Sunday, several incidents took
place between HizbAllah’s cells moving into several neighborhoods
in mostly Sunni West Beirut, and between local Sunni youth. In
most of these urban clashes, with clubs and stones, HizbAllah’s
members withdrew to their quarters in downtown and the southern
suburbs. Observers believe these incidents were a sort of testing
on behalf of HizbAllah’s military command to assess the level of
“popular resistance” against its stretching inside Muslim Beirut.
It is to note that Sunni areas have been displaying more
opposition to Nasrallah’s militia in more than one area. More
noticeably in the Eastern Bekaa where entire villages such as
Kamed al Lawz and surrounding areas have erupted in small
demonstrations against the pro-Iranian coalition. Also in Tripoli,
and despite the presence of some solid pro-Syrian Sunni influence,
anti-HizbAllah manifestations are taking place.
Shiite moderates appear
Interestingly, more moderate
Shiite voices are emerging against Nasrallah’s power and in
support of the Lebanese Government and its supporters. In addition
to the prominent Shiite Mufti of Tyre Ali al Amine, the spiritual
leader of the Shiites in Jabal Amel, core of south Lebanon’s
community, a newly formed “Free Shiite Coalition” led by the
intrepid Sheikh Mohammed al Haj Hassan is calling on the Shiites
to rejects the “orders by Ahmedinijad to wreck havoc in Lebanon.”
In a strong speech aired worldwide on internet Saturday night,
Sheikh called on the international community to assist the
Lebanese people against the terror threat, HizbAllah. This is the
boldest call by a Shiia cleric against Iran’s influence in Lebanon.
Sunni spiritual leaders have already voiced their opposition to
the “Syro-Iranian aggression” against the Government. Lebanon’s
national Mufti Mohammed Rashid Qabbani extended his support to the
Cedars Revolution backed Seniora Government yesterday and insisted
on praying inside the Prime Minister’s office while HizbAllah was
encircling the government building. On his part the Mufti of Mount
Lebanon, Mohamed Ali al Juzu attacked Hassan Nasrallah accusing
him of taking orders from Iran and targeting the independence of
Lebanon.
Mufti
al Amine
Next
HizbAllah’s moves
The latest information
released by the Lebanese security sources and published in the
Arab press on Sunday morning, and detailed by the Kuwaiti daily as
Siyassa says HizbAllah was planning on shutting down Beirut
airport, possibly its port and large segments of the basic public
services such as electricity and water. A memo sent by Nasrallah
to his supporters inside the security and police forces asked them
to withdraw and join the ranks of the “movement against the
Government.”
Hassan Nasrallah
Media tilting noted
On the media level, the
campaign unleashed by HizbAllah widened on al Manar TV and was
supported by Syria’s press and audiovisual as well as Iran’s. Al
Jazeera is backing the crumbling of the Lebanese Government by
“projecting” that the cabinet will fall, despite indicators that
the popular majority in Lebanon backs it. But the most interesting
development is the gradual editorial twist in most of the news
agencies distributing information around the world indirectly
towards HizbAllah. In fact, the choice of words in the reports
issued by Reuters, AP and UPI indicates that they are increasingly
portraying the HizbAllah’s campaign as “an opposition movement
against a Government refusing to accept its demands.” These mother
ships of international media, that feeds thousands of newspapers
and audiovisual networks around the world, have for example pushed
the number of the demonstrators as “close to 800,000 persons,” or
as they put it “one quarter of Lebanon’s population.” While in
reality, researchers in Lebanon, measuring the space these
demonstrations took place in, cannot absorb more than 250,000
persons. A quarter of a million people is a large number but
compared to the 1.5 million people gathered by the Cedars
Revolution indicates clearly to social demographers, that
HizbAllah, with the support of Syria, Iran, the radical
Palestinians, cannot muster a popular support greater than one
sixth of the majority. But many sectors in the international media
are tilting towards producing pro-HizbAllah’s trends. A reporter
for Time wrote that “what he saw was a reverse of the Cedars
Revolution,” using words uttered by the organizers of the
pro-Iranian move. “It is not so difficult to understand,” said a
human rights activist in Beirut, “HizbAllah has done a great job
in influencing many correspondents on the ground. With Iranian
logistics, its operatives can provide all what a journalist can
dream of. Unfortunately also,” said the NGO observer, “many
HizbAllah media cadres have found their way into being recruited
by some media. You wouldn’t believe where these infiltrations have
reached,” he said. Bloggers in Beirut have begun to monitor the
HizbAllah’s penetration of international media as the reporting
has been drifting towards promoting the pro-Iranian militia.
Lebanese facing alone
Prime Minister Siniora
As the third day of the
offensive begins, HizbAllah and its allied are bracing for bolder
moves to take over the Lebanese Government. Out of Egypt,
President Mubarak warned from more dramatic steps HizbAllah would
take, leading to a blood shed. In New York, US ambassador Bolton
warned from a Terror war against Lebanon. And in Beirut, the
unarmed civil society of the country fears the worse: Being left
with a democratically elected cabinet they are proud of, they feel
they are facing, alone, the world’s most dangerous Terror forces:
the combined power of Ahmedinijad, Assad and Nasrallah
****
Dr Walid Phares is a Senior
Fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the
author of Future Jihad. He was one of the architects of
UNSCR 1559.
Phares@walidphares.com