Two Dimensions of Regional Conflict

Posted on February 10, 2012 by Daniel Bart

As Syria increasingly descends into ethnic civil war, it is crucial to understand how regional conflicts throughout the region are driven by ambitions of ethnic/religious domination over others in the region. At present, ethnic/religious domination is sought by Shia Amians in Iraq & Grand Liban, mutually between Sunni Amians and Amian-speaking Crypto-Jewish ethnicities in Syria, and by Arabist/Islamist Sunni Amians over multiethnic Pan-Jewry generally in the region, including over Arameans, Kurds and Talmudic Israeli Jews.

Thus, those seeking ethnic/religious domination do not belong to one singular ethnicity, nationality or denomination, but the quest for ethnic/religious domination over others is very much a region-wide predicament. The prime regional ethico-political prerequisite for peace is thus to end regional conflicts by means of ending geopolitical quests for ethnic/religious domination over others and achieving this substantial regional cultural change by means of conclusive partition that will mutually minimize minoritization of local majority communities between and within a federal Israel and a federal Amistan. Political ambitions in the region for ethnic/religious domination have in the past hundred years been increasingly ethnically inverted as conflicts in the region are fueled by historically often mutual ambitions for ethnic/religious domination. Such a once more inverted political quest for ethnic/religious domination is currently taking place inside Syria whereby members of the 60% Amian demographic majority in Syria seeks to reinstate their historical political ethnic/religious hegemony in Syria. It is often demagogically claimed that the Syrian regime has no internal political legitimacy whatsoever and no significant domestic popular support. Such claims are manifestly untrue considering that the regime still retains very significant domestic ethnic political support among mostly Amian-speaking Crypto-Jewish ethnicities in Syria (Alawis, Arameans, Druze and Ismailis) as well as among Shia Amians in neighboring Grand Liban.

While an advisory UN Security Council UN Charter Chapter VI Resolution certainly would change nothing for the better inside Syria, Russia does play an increasingly crucial role in seeking a negotiated outcome to the conflict. There are essentially three main possible outcomes to the conflict: (1) the regime stays in power and crushes entirely the Sunni Amian revolution, (2) Syria descends into deepened ethnic civil war in the mutual quest for ethnic/religious domination between rival Amian and Crypto-Jewish ethnic militias in a Syria without a functioning government leading to de facto partition and (3) a negotiated outcome is achieved and Syria, Grand Liban and the region is hence peacefully diplomatically partitioned between a federal Amistan and a federal Israel.  

The simplistic idea that all that is required to achieve peace and advanced democracy is for the Syrian regime to step down – is cynical in the extreme. This scenario would merely lead to a violent de facto partition rather than a diplomatic de jure partition. Today, the region is politically divided between those who seek ethnic/religious domination and those who oppose becoming subject to the thus sought particular ethnic/religious domination. This political division of roles in the quest for ethnic/religious domination may change sooner rather than later as Israel may find it absolutely ethico-politically necessary at some point to intervene militarily to prevent Amian attempted genocide against Crypto-Jewish ethnicities in Syria and Grand Liban. While the regime staying in power & crushing the Amian revolution seems increasingly unlikely (although still not entirely implausible), the international community needs to support Russia’s responsible diplomacy rather than seek to score cheap political points in engaging in populist, highly cynical demagoguery of Master-Slave Morality. Yes, the ongoing carnage against ethnically Sunni Amians in Syria is certainly unacceptable, yet the only alternative to any martial outcome is a negotiated outcome, hence the need for discreet negotiations to commence so as to finally end mutually competing quests for ethnic/religious domination as this would be achieved through conclusive region-wide partition between a federal Israel and a federal Amistan that will mutually minimize national minoritization of local majority communities across the region. Russia should be applauded & commended for keeping open all lines of communication with the various parties to the conflict as a negotiated outcome is certainly vastly preferable to a martial outcome. No significant ethnic group in Syria will voluntarily consent to become or remain subject to ethnic/religious domination in the future and the proper strategic response to any quest for ethnic/religious domination in the region is therefore conclusive partition by diplomatic means. The wholly cynical posturing at the United Nations has not resolved the dispute and what is needed is therefore more diplomacy, not less.

While at present, the quest for ethnic/religious domination transcends ethnicities of the two broader nations, Jews and Amians, this may transform into a broader Levantine asymmetric war pitting communities of the two broader nations against each other. While Ramallah and Gaza City certainly hope for such an outcome so as to avoid peace with Israel and also they hope, so as to unseat Jordan’s enlightened ruling royal family – continued quest for ethnic/religious domination is certainly not in their national interest as Amians. The same kind of myopia can be found among some leaders belonging to Crypto-Jewish ethnicities within the Syrian regime, considering that a martial partition will most probably and very tragically so leave predominantly Amian regions of Syria wholly ethnically cleansed Iraq-style, from any local presence of profoundly hated Crypto-Jewish ethnicities such as Alawis, Arameans and Kurds. While peaceful Amian demonstrators continue to be butchered in Syria, it needs repeating that more diplomacy is part of the solution, not less. Israel understands all sides to the Syrian conflict better than does anyone else in the international community and leaders of all interested parties of Syria & Grand Liban should therefore be discreetly welcomed to Israel as only sovereign-indigenous Israel can provide the kind of highly credible treaty-bound obligations that would enable a diplomatic outcome (and thus prevent comprehensive ethnic cleansing against Arameans and others) rather than a tragically violent outcome.

Unified Amistani federalism would crucially also resolve the issue of ethnic conflict between ethnically Sunni Amians & ethnically Shia Amians in both Iraq and Grand Liban. The pivotal strategic question remains, do we choose the diplomatic peace of conclusive regional partition or further transform into major regional warfare in the quest once more for ethnic/religious domination, not only between the two nations, but also between ethnically Shia Amians and ethnically Sunni Amians? Only by mutually conclusive partition and internal federal unification in a federal Israel and a federal Amistan is it possible to mutually end any and all ambitions for ethnic/religious domination in the region between or within the two broader nations, Jews and Amians.   

There are more and more independent-thinking leading political personalities inside the administrations of Damascus (dominated by Crypto-Jewish ethnicities) and Ramallah (dominated by Sunni Amians) who increasingly do understand that nothing short of conclusive regional partition will save the region from transforming into an increasingly expanding regional disaster zone. There is in principle substantial diplomatic middle ground in the sense of jointly and mutually opposing regional geostrategies for ethnic/religious domination and thus supporting conclusive region-wide partition that will mutually minimize minoritization of local majority communities and hence equally serve both broader nations, Jews and Amians. The existence of chemical weapons in multiple hands in the region adds significantly to regional mutual strategic dangers that stem from choosing the old conflict paradigm of mutually seeking ethnic/religious domination between the two broader nations – over a new peaceful, responsibly pro-democracy paradigm of conclusive diplomatic partition between & internal federal unification within the two major nations in the region, the broader Amian nation and the broader Jewish nation.

The old historical paradigm of mutually seeking ethnic/religious domination is what fuels violence, tyranny and conflict in the region. Thus, mutually ending political ambitions for ethnic/religious domination is what is strategically & paradigmatically required to change path from the current martial one in Syria towards a peaceful diplomatic outcome. This is also true in Israel & Judea/Samaria, it is true in Syria, Southwestern Kurdistan & Grand Liban, and it is certainly true in Iraq & Southern Kurdistan. This region is clearly on the wrong strategic path leading towards a military outcome, yet it is certainly true that the desire not to be subjected to ethnic/religious domination by the other nation is something that is shared by members of ethnicities of the two broader nations throughout the region, Jews and Amians. Both nations mutually abhor minoritization and ending all quests for ethnic/religious domination between or within the two nations by means of regional conclusive partition between a federal Israel and a federal Amistan so as to mutually minimize national minoritization of local majority communities between the two nations is thus entirely indispensable for achieving lasting peace, stability and incremental, responsible democratization throughout the region.

There is no question that Moscow can play an increasingly important diplomatic role in facilitating reconciliation between Israel and still somewhat skeptically inclined leaders in the Syrian administration. It is no coincidence that it is among those ethnically Crypto-Jewish leaders in the Syrian administration who have the most to lose from a chaotic outcome who are also the most resistant to committing to a peaceful diplomatic outcome of conclusive partition between the two broader nations, Jews and Amians. While this may seem paradoxical indeed, it is psychologically and economically understandable as long as there remains some hope within the regime for its own survival. Yet as the conflict escalates, so will the urgency increase for a peaceful diplomatic outcome of region-wide conclusive partition between a federal Israel and a federal Amistan that will mutually minimize minoritization of local majority communities. While the ongoing slaughter of ethnic Amians in Syria is unacceptable, this does not in any way lessen the need for credible and substantive diplomacy of mutual building of confidence between Jewish leaders of Israel and those Crypto-Jewish leaders of Syria who are still somewhat skeptical, suspicious or reluctant about diplomatic partition. Although it is not exactly a secret that Jerusalem and Damascus have for years enjoyed discreet diplomatic relations & discreet trade ties between the two countries, there is no question that Moscow working closely with Amman & Jerusalem can play an increasingly pivotal role in building personal intra-Jewish & personal intra-Amian trust within for federal unification and facilitating peace of conclusive partition between the two nations – Jews and Amians - that would mutually minimize minoritization of local majority communities through of a federal Amistan and a federal Israel.

What is needed now is not cynical grandstanding in New York City but instead a responsible region-wide policy based on democratic realism and mutual acceptance of pro-democratic self-determination for both nations. While some rejectionists argue that conclusive region-wide partition would lead to strengthened ethnic/religious domination over local minorities inside the new borders of the various federal member states in the region, Amistani and Israeli, this certainly need not be the case once both unified nations mutually engage in pro-democratic self-determination that accepts, affirms & recognizes the other nation as equally legitimate which would be entirely realistic in an increasingly unified Amistan under Jordanian royal federal government and certainly so in federal Israel. Furthermore, both federal Israel and federal Amistan would be quite multiethnic with power shared between various federal member states, each with its own heritage, culture and identity. Federalism is generally conducive to regional stability and Egypt & a unified Tamazgha should like a unified federal Amistan under royal Jordanian federal leadership also become royal-led federations with initially exclusively royal federal level of political authority. Royal federalism is certainly very good for peace and it is also very good for responsible democratization in the region specifically and in Islamdom generally.

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