It is important that
the communities of Greater Lebanon find common ground and
agree on a proper divorce. The Lebanese government and its
leaders are important partners, now and in the future and
need to act so as to promote shared Arabian and Aramaean
interests. Although Hezbollah say they take orders from
Teheran one can not help but to observe that they act far
more rationally than their Iranian masters. Hezbollah is in
fact a highly sophisticated Islamofascist entity that likely
makes more independent decisions than they would admit in
public.
It is
preferable that Greater Lebanon is divided peacefully with
full agreement from the Shi’i community. It is also
important that the Syrian government acts responsibly and is
helpful in implementing the principle of linguistic states
in Lebanon as well. Some Shi’i Iraqi leaders could certainly
play important roles in ensuring Shi’i Arab interests.
Greater Lebanon
will inevitably become another Israeli theatre of war unless
Hezbollah is persuaded to act responsibly and promote
Arabian rather than Iranian interests. There is no question
that the Hezbollastani regions are integral parts of the
Khomeinist entity. The Arabian interest lies in promotion of
Arabian unification through implementation of the principle
of linguistic states, preferably through agreement in this
case. There is no option of leaving an armed Hezbollah in
place and Israel would certainly need to apply the strategic
doctrine of proactive reciprocity (with temporary
consequences) unless there is a comprehensive political
solution as part of the wider regional map. Moving the
ground battle to the Beqaa Valley would deprive Hezbollah of
the topographic advantages that they have in the south. Some
Arabophone governments may think that there is a
third option of temporary Hezbollah non-belligerence and
non-division of Greater Lebanon so as to keep the
Arab-Israeli conflict alive indefinitely and deny key
aspects of the principle of linguistic states. One can
vividly imagine that some in the Arabophone world would be
interested in taking over Iran’s sponsorship of Hezbollah.
This is an illusion as there is no such option. Agreed Shi’i
autonomy within a federal Arabia in parts of the present
Greater Lebanon including complete Hezbollah disarmament is
the only option that would avoid the opening of a third
theatre. Israel certainly has no strategic interest in
delaying the final blow as that would not be conducive to
the cause of perpetual peace. A pre-conflict partition
agreement between Beirut and Amman in the absence of
Hezbollah consent is clearly an Arab territorial interest.
Either way,
there will have to be a free independent Aramaean Lebanon as
no one should assume that Israel would hesitate to go all
the way to the northern end of the Beqaa Valley if necessary
so as to terminate the last Hezbollah combatant. Arabian
unification and an Aramaean Lebanon are key American,
European and allied interests and there is no question that
Israel would do everything necessary so as to promote shared
interests. No one should assume that Israel would be
deterred by prior experience as Israel won all previous
engagements in Lebanon.
http://democraticinterests.blog.com:80/2508096/
